Comptroller’s Weekly Economic Outlook
Updated May 17, 2013
Job growth, sales tax collections and building permits all signal that the Texas economy continues to outpace the national economy.
Texas total nonfarm employment increased by 33,100 jobs during April 2013. Between April 2012 and April 2013, Texas total nonfarm employment increased by 3.0 percent.
Over the past year, Texas added jobs in all of the 11 major industries, including professional and business services, trade, transportation and utilities, leisure and hospitality, construction, education and health services, government, mining and logging, financial activities, other services, manufacturing, and information.
Texas employment fell by more than 422,000 during the recession, reaching its low point in December 2009, but returned to its pre-recession peak in November 2011. By February 2013, the state had added an additional 454,000 jobs. In the U.S. as a whole, only 67 percent of recession-hit jobs were recovered by March 2013.
Texas and the nation returned to economic growth in 2010 and 2011, respectively. In calendar 2012, Texas real gross domestic product grew by 3.2 percent, compared with 2.2 percent for the U.S.
- The U.S. added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in April 2013. The U.S. unemployment rate was 7.5 percent for April 2013. Between April 2012 and April 2013, U.S. total nonfarm employment increased 1.6 percent.
- Texas total nonfarm employment increased by 33,100 jobs during April 2013. Between April 2012 and April 2013, Texas total nonfarm employment increased by 3.0 percent.
- The Texas unemployment rate was 6.4 percent for April 2013.
- The Texas unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 76 consecutive months.
- Thus far, Texas has weathered the national real estate crunch without significant damage to property values.
- A total of 7,541 building permits for single-family homes were issued in March 2013. In the 12 months ending in March 2013, a total of 78,868 permits were issued, 22 percent more than in the previous year.
- There were 4,310 multi-family building permits issued in March 2013. During the 12 months ending in March 2013, a total of 55,430 permits were issued, 47 percent more than in the previous year.
- In March 2013, there were 22,458 sales of existing single-family homes, an increase of 35.2 percent over the previous month, and 17.4 percent more than in March 2012.
- The median sale price for an existing single-family home was $165,000 in March 2013, 6.8 percent higher than a year ago.
- The U.S. consumer confidence index was 68.1 in April 2013, up 10 percent from March 2013, and 0.9 percent lower than one year ago.
- The Texas region’s consumer confidence index was 105.8 in April 2013, up 17.4 percent from March 2013, and 17.8 percent higher than one year ago.
- Oil and natural gas production tax collections for the first eight months of fiscal 2013 were 14.0 percent higher than during the same period in 2012.
- After reaching a record high closing price of $145.29 per barrel in July 2008 then falling to a low of $33.98 during February 2009, crude oil futures reached a settle price of $95.16 on May 16, 2013.
- After reaching a record high closing price of $13.58 per MMBtu in July 2008 then falling to a low of $2.51 during September 2009, natural gas futures reached a settle price of $3.93 on May 16, 2013.
- Texas state sales tax receipts for April 2013 were 3.9 percent higher than for April 2012.
- Fiscal 2012 state sales tax receipts were 12.6 percent higher than for fiscal 2011, following a 9.4 percent increase in fiscal 2011.
- Sales tax collections have increased for 37 consecutive months (year-over-year), boosted by strong business spending in the oil/natural gas and manufacturing sectors, and to a lesser extent by retail sales activity.
- Texas motor vehicle sales and rental tax collections for March 2013 were up 7.3 percent from March 2012.
- The nationwide average core transaction price for a new car or truck during the first 15 days of March 2013 rose 2.2 percent to $32,524 from the first 15 days of March 2012.
- For the first 15 days of March 2013, total national new auto sales were 572,065 units, up 5.3 percent compared to first 15 days of March 2012.
- Nationally, leases accounted for 27.3 percent of all new vehicle sales for the first 15 days of March 2013, increasing from 25.9 percent for the first 15 days of March 2012.
A Deeper Dive into Jobs
Texas replaced all of its recession-hit jobs by December 2011
The number of Texas workers reached an all-time high of 10.65 million in December 2011, a sign that employers are looking at the recent recession through a rear-view mirror.
The Texas Workforce Commission’s December 2011 employment statement reported Texas added more than 200,000 jobs in 2011. This restored the state to its pre-recession employment levels by replacing the remainder of the 427,600 jobs lost during late 2008 and throughout 2009. The two-year recovery to this point puts Texas well ahead of the national job market, which is finding it more difficult to regain jobs at the rate of Texas; just 30 percent of jobs shed nationally during the recession have been restored.
Wide variety of jobs added
Most employment sectors added workers in 2011. Particularly strong were the mining and logging sector (bolstered by oil and natural gas sector industries) that added more than 40,000 jobs and grew by 18.7 percent; professional and business services (53,100 jobs) and leisure and hospitality (41,200 jobs), which chipped in 4.1 percent and 4 percent growth, respectively, and the trade, transportation and utilities sector which added nearly 46,000 workers.
Three sectors saw a decline in employment during 2011: government shed almost 56,000 workers, while the much smaller construction (-6,300) and information (-7,900) sectors reduced workers, too.
More about Jobs »
A Deeper Dive: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by State
Gross domestic product by state, formerly referred to as gross state product (GSP), is a broad measure of a state’s production. The “value added” that is generated by the state’s GDP represents the difference between the state’s industries gross output (e.g., industry sales and other operating income, commodity taxes, and inventory changes) and the value of the intermediate inputs (purchase of goods and services from other industries) used in producing the industries’ products.
Economic production and growth are represented by real GSP, so it can be seen as a primary indicator to gauge the health of the state economy. The term “real” refers to GSP and GDP values being indexed to a certain year (2005) to accurately reflect the rate of change. Failure to do so would lead to inflated growth rates. From 2001 to 2010, U.S. real GDP grew by 16.8 percent while Texas’ real GSP grew by 23.5 percent for the same period. More about GDP »
